Pisa vs Empoli Prediction: Tuscany Derby Battle Expected, Empoli Win Odds 2.35

Pisa vs Empoli Prediction

Match Overview

Pisa welcome Empoli to the Arena Garibaldi – Stadio Romeo Anconetani on August 17, 2026, in the Coppa Italia Round of 32. Kick-off is scheduled for 17:00.

The Tuscan derby promises to be a competitive cup encounter between two clubs with strong regional connections. Pisa will rely on their passionate home support, while Empoli arrive with the experience of regularly competing at the highest levels of Italian football.

Cup matches often bring rotation and tactical changes, but neither side will want to miss the opportunity to advance. A victory here would provide valuable momentum at the beginning of the season.

Pisa are expected to approach the match with intensity, using the atmosphere of Arena Garibaldi to put pressure on Empoli from the opening minutes. The visitors, however, have more experience in managing difficult away fixtures.

Head-to-Head Record

The meetings between Pisa and Empoli have historically been closely contested.

Matches played: 35
Pisa wins: 10
Draws: 12
Empoli wins: 13

The rivalry has produced many low-scoring tactical battles, with both teams often prioritising defensive organisation.

Recent encounters have shown a small advantage for Empoli, but Pisa have traditionally been difficult to defeat at home.

Team Form and Match Context

Pisa enter the Coppa Italia tie with confidence and motivation. Playing at Arena Garibaldi gives them an important advantage, especially in a derby where emotional intensity can influence the outcome.

Their strengths are defensive discipline, physical midfield play and quick attacking transitions. Pisa are unlikely to dominate possession but will look to exploit spaces behind Empoli’s defensive line.

Empoli have more experience in Serie A and Serie B environments, which gives them an advantage in terms of tactical maturity. They usually prefer controlled football, patient build-up and structured defensive positioning.

The main challenge for Empoli will be dealing with Pisa’s aggressive approach and the pressure created by the home supporters.

Predicted Lineups

Pisa — 3-4-2-1

Semper; Canestrelli, Caracciolo, Calabresi; Barbieri, Marin, Veloso, Beruatto; Arena, Tramoni; Moreo.

Empoli — 3-4-2-1

Vasquez; Ismajli, Goglichidze, Pezzella; Gyasi, Grassi, Henderson, Cacace; Fazzini, Baldanzi; Colombo.

The final lineups may change depending on fitness, squad rotation and tactical decisions before kick-off.

xG and Tactical Outlook

Projected xG: Pisa 1.05 – 1.25 Empoli.

The expected numbers suggest a very balanced match, with Empoli having a slight attacking advantage.

Pisa are likely to defend compactly and search for opportunities from quick counter-attacks and set pieces. Their ability to remain organised without the ball will be crucial.

Empoli should have more possession and attempt to control the tempo. Their midfield quality could allow them to create more consistent attacking phases.

The first goal will be extremely important. If Pisa score first, the match could become uncomfortable for Empoli. If the visitors take the lead, they can use their experience to control the game.

Key Factors

Derby atmosphere. Emotional pressure could make this match unpredictable.

Empoli experience. The visitors have more experience in high-level Italian competitions.

Set pieces. Both teams can be dangerous from dead-ball situations.

Prediction and Betting Pick

This Coppa Italia derby is expected to be a tight contest with limited space and few clear chances. Pisa have home advantage, but Empoli’s greater tactical experience gives them a small edge.

A cautious opening period is likely, with both teams attempting to avoid early mistakes.

Main Prediction: Empoli Draw No Bet — approximate odds 1.70

Value Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals — approximate odds 1.65

Secondary Prediction: Both Teams to Score — approximate odds 1.90

Alternative Pick: Empoli Win — approximate odds 2.35

Correct Score: Pisa 0-1 Empoli

Empoli should have enough quality to progress, but Pisa are likely to make the visitors work hard in a difficult Tuscan derby.

🏆 Final Verdict: Pisa 0-1 Empoli